Wargame, no game

Amid the news (not really surprising) that both Chinese and Russian spy ships are closely tailing/observing the Carl Vinson Task Force, we now have Russia .. well…

Bloomberg:

“If we are to understand the words of the U.S. vice president as a threat to use force unilaterally, it is course a very risky course of action,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in comments broadcast on state TV on Monday.

While Russia condemns the “brinkmanship’’ of the ballistic missile tests by the isolated Communist state in violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions, this doesn’t justify breaking international law, Lavrov said. “So I really hope that the same unilateral actions we saw in Syria won’t happen.”

Russia maintains close ties to North Korea, with which it shares a border, but isn’t an ally to the regime like China.

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence on Monday said “the era of strategic patience is over,” warning the U.S and its allies would act if China doesn’t use its influence to prod North Korea into giving up its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Pence spoke during a visit to the demilitarized zone between North Korea and South Korea.

China’s biggest move would be complete embargo. Total shutdown. Combined with a US Naval blockade (Cuba 10/62) it would commercially strangle North Korea. Nothing from Iran, nothing from Russia, nothing from any apostate, state. IT would be more effective than our moves in , oh, NINETEEN FORTY ONE. We all know how Japan responded to that.

And they weren’t KRAY-ZEE.

Any action short of hostilities which would be effective will be hostilities to Pyongyang. But NORKLAND would have been maneuvered into firing the first shot. Consider how Lincoln did that to Jeff Davis over Sumter, or how FDR set up Tojo.

It has been obvious since WAY WAY back when John Bolton confronted the Norks (and got them to admit, PROUDLY) and they told the world they had a nuke then later tested it that there was NOTHING we could do short of physically stopping them, which would stop them. No president then was willing to state this. The same is true of their (probably Iran financed) missile program.

They cannot be allowed to have this capability.

This cannot be prevented except by hostility.

The only remaining question (given COMPLETE Chinese support) is if we give the Norks tactical surprise, by maneuvering them into striking first, or we take them out with our own strike.

The answer lies in this …Would their first strike be a nuclear strike against South Korea and Japan, or Guam?

If our IC (which has been SO SO SO wrong) judges yes, then the course is pretty well set.

Isn’t it?

 

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